This is a question I hear a lot and although I have answered it a lot, it keeps being asked so I will put it in writing.
As satisfying as it would be for all of us to see Israel get smashed, that isn’t the best strategic course. Ultimately they will need to be bombed because they are the progenitors of the entire conflict. Below is what Iran is doing and how it is shaping up to be a final confrontation with Israel.
1 Mitigate and then neutralize the immediate threats
The immediate threats to Iran are two pronged.
- the nations adjacent to them that hold US bases
- the US fleet in the gulf of Oman and attempting to enter the Strait of Hormuz
Israel cannot even reach Iran without refuelers. The US is the real threat but the US is stretched thin. They are thousands of miles away and rely completely on Bases and the Navy. The land bases were the greater threat and the first threat removed. Going on ROI model the most juice for the squeeze was to take out highly expensive radar used by defensive interceptor systems, with low cost drones. Next Iran would drain the interceptors themselves. Israel and its proxies have a fixed number of interceptors which cannot be replaced not because of the cost but because of the supply chain issues and rare components. It not simply a problem with obtaining rare earth metals. The real bottle neck is in getting those rare earth metals refined. Gathering what is needed for the complex interceptor system is over a year waiting time before assembly can even start. The tooling, machine parts and manufacturing are another hurtle but they pale in comparison to obtaining and refining rare earth metal. The US has a supply chain logistical nightmare and Trump is making it worse with his tariffs and poor trade diplomacy in general.
Offensively, Iran can use up older stockpiles of missiles and less expensive and easily replaceable short range missiles and even drones to hit the Gulf Arab proxies of Israel. If they fire a long rang Khorramshahr 4 it cost Iran about $8 million dollars per shot and it does not eat up any more interceptors than a Fateh-110, a short range ballistic missile that only cost $110 thousand. It does not matter where US interceptors are eaten up. Once they are gone they are gone. It harms Israel too when Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan or Saudi Arabia blow through stockpiles. For the total number is reduced.
So for an offense that is about 80 times cheaper Iran can inflict this type of damage while at the same time reducing the immediate threats to itself.
After blinding them by removing radar and communications and leaving them naked in the area of missile defense, the next step is to pout on the offense which Iran did by taking about airfields, parked aircraft, and aircraft hangers. Essentially they hit anything that can be used to bomb them jets, bombers, refuelers and even helicopter. They also down recon drones and under water drones whenever possible. They even captured a few in tact, which will be reverse engineered.
Phase 1 take out the adjacent bases was done in two way. Qatar and UAE surrendered politically. Iran made an ultimatum. If you allow the US to use you airspace to attack Iran then Iran is going to attack you. They took this deal and stopped aiding the US after the 40 day war. There have been minor flare ups and Iran has held true to its promise and tagged both countries. Kuwait and Bahrain got peppered with missiles. Bahrain absolutely had to be neutralized because of Naval based for the US 5th fleet. Without Bahrain the US destroyers must go way beyond Diego Garcia to refit. In fact it doesn’t even make sense to go all the way to Singapore so the US is forced to rotate in new ships from the California and Virginia. Carriers need strike force battle group to support them. This is the weak point and Iran knew it. With 20k sailors and marines that’s 420k meals a week and millions of gallons of fuel. They only have a set number of shots they can fired both defensively and offensively and then they much refit as a base.
At present the carriers have been forced to move so far back that the sorties used by their aircraft would now require midair refueling. Iran is now free to glass tankers and whatever else they see fit trying the exit or enter the Strait of Hormuz.
Over on the land the Iranian offensive took to Iraq and Jordan. In Iraq they can rely on the Iraqi PMU to strike internally. With Jordan, yes Iran did have to use up some long range fire but it has been devastatingly accurate and unstoppable. The US had the embarrassing task of having to move equipment to Israel. Iran is pushing the US further and further west and it is pushing the US navy further and further east.
Also interesting is as of September Iran no longer waited to do a tit for tat. Instead they took the initiative and struck targets as they saw fit.
Iran would also prefer to fight the US one on one without fighting Israel at the same time for as long as it can. Israel likewise has the same reasoning as it want to fight Lebanon without having to also deal with Iran. However Iran has drawn a red line. Beirut is now off limits and Israel knows this.
Meanwhile the Houthi are taking coast cities in Yemen away from Saudi Arabia and they have even gone of the offense inside Saudi Arabia. Shutting down the Maritime Silk Road (my term) by controlling the straits is creating a diesel crisis. Europe in particular has boxed itself in because it refuses to buy from Russia who now also refuses to sell to them and they can’t get their oil out of the Gulf either.
You can project that with both the US and Israel having elections that this failed war will have an impact. The economies are already feeling the pain. They already exhausted ways of mitigating it by using up oil reserves. Prior to the conflict Biden had already sent US oil to China during the covid hype and start of the Ukraine War.
We are headed towards a confrontation between Iran and Israel. None of Israeli’s Epstein-ed allies are in a position to help them. In the coming month Saudi Arabia will be the next to feel the pain. The US navy has no answer and the Gulf bases have been rendered useless. Another round of bombs on Iran will not change the big picture. The only option is nuclear weapons and I will talk about that next time
