Hello and welcome to the Deep Dive Perspective. With me today, I have Ryan Dawson joining and also Ehsan Safran-Najjal. Welcome to the show, gentlemen. Ehsan and Ryan, both well known to our audience on DDP. Of course, Ehsan is on Political Oficionado, his own YouTube channel. And Ryan, you can find him on Substack ryandawson.org Do like, share, subscribe to all of these channels. Absolutely riveting. And today’s truth. Yemen, Bab al-Mantib, that little waterway which happens to control a large amount of the world’s trade and energy routes is back in the frame. Of course, there was a wind-down with the Saudis And the Yemeni Ansarullah de-escalating the 14-, 15-year never-ending war which was inflicted on the people of Yemen by the Anglo-Zionist empire, with the Saudis fronting it. Well, it’s back. It happens to be in action again. I’m going to ask Ehsan, first of all, just to give us an overview of the context of this Closure, certainly for Saudi tankers. Many have been returned. Some have been hit, from what I gather. And what this is all about in the context of the greater war across the region, which is being inflicted on the axis of resistance?
Well, the blockade has started. Following this Iranian airliner traveling to Yemen in order to pick up the Yemeni delegation. And then you had the Saudis trying to harass them, trying to shoot down that airliner. They also attacked the airports in Yemen. And then the airliner had to go to another port inside the country. And the same thing happened again. So as you know, the Saudis for a long time have been putting a naval and air blockade against Yemen. But this was sort of the final straw for the Yemeni government. I’m referring to Ansarallah. And they decided that it’s the right time for them to impose a blockade on Bab al-Manda. And this is not a full blockade. It’s not all vessels. It’s just mostly on Saudi vessels, as you mentioned. For example, I think it was yesterday or the day before that. I mean, we’re talking about July 22nd, if I remember correctly. And the Yemenians targeted two ships 70 kilometers off the coast of Yemen. So the Saudis, they can’t export their oil through Bab al-Manda to East Asia, right? This brings up a fundamental flaw in the way that the Saudis have to now export their oil. They have to use the Swiss Canal. Now, the problem is that if you go through the Suez Canal, you can’t use those big tankers. So you have different classes of oil tankers. You have ULCCs, ultra-high crude carriers, and VLCCs, very large crude carriers. You can’t use either of them. They can transport 1.9 to 2.1 million barrels of oil. You can’t use them, so you have to now use smaller crude carriers like Afromax, Panamax, and this fundamentally limits your ability in order to export more oil. This becomes important in the concept of understanding that The Strait of Hormuz is now closed because of the U.S. reneging on its commitment within the memorandum of understanding that it has signed with Iran. So now Saudis, they can’t use the Strait of Hormuz. Their alternative path was to export oil through the port of Yanbu. Well, thank you
for that overview. That really provides the context. The implications of this, Ryan, at the moment, of course, it’s limited supposedly to Saudi. But you know, Saudi oil is a massive, massive output, possibly the biggest in the world. And without that oil coming either from the homers or from the Bab al-Mandib, that affects the entire oil market, I assume. I assume it will also affect inflation across the world. What impact can you see this having in terms of any extended lockdown on these tankers? And for that matter, why have the Saudis even done this?
Well, let’s point this out too. Oil is the most important commodity, but it’s not the only commodity that shut off by cutting out what I call the Maritime Silk Road. And it’s trickled down. That’s about, you know, about 7 million barrels could have gone on the large tankers. That’s down to about 1.2 to 1.6 going through the Suez, plus a much larger route, obviously. Why are they doing this? Well, they’ve had cyclical battles with Yemen. They have two options. They have the Red Sea or they have the Strait of Hormuz. Most of their infrastructure was in the northeast part of the country, near the Strait of Hormuz, because prior to the discovery of oil, there was the Pearl Trade, and that’s where the ports and infrastructure already existed, and they just grafted on to where the city’s imports already were and built their oil that way. That’s closed because of the Zionists and the Americans’ war on Iran where they’ve been constantly reneging on their half of deals. So the Saudis at least had, if that dropped from 20 million barrels a day, where they had 7 million barrels a day, now it’s about 1.6. So they can’t get through that. And it’s not just the physical blockade, it’s the hiking insurance rates and reinsurance rates on ships. So it compounds on that. And it’s not just oil, it’s LNG, it’s imports too. Let’s not forget mostly food products. So anything you can’t move on rail, anything that takes container ships, And as far as the port at Yanbu, not only can Yemen affect that, that was hit twice by Iran. At that distance, they proved they can tag the southern half of Saudi Arabia as well. So they’ve walked right into it. He was thinking, why? Why would you do this? All you had to do was stop bombing Lebanon and there could have been a deal and the straits, both straits could have been reopened. And why did Saudi bomb Sana’a twice? And restart this, knowing how fragile everything was with the Northern Strait already closed. But they did. But these states don’t act in their own interests. They do what they’re told. And you’ve seen the consequences, especially for Kuwait and Bahrain. Qatar and the UAE have decided to try to not allow the U.S. to strike Iran from their airspace because of the consequence of Iran hitting them back. But some of these other states are still complying to U.S. demands and they’re paying the price for that. As far west as Jordan, they’ve been getting hit. And so I expect this to continue. You would think if you think in real politic terms, this goes against the national interests of everybody other than Israel. Why would they behave this way? But real politic is dead. Nations don’t always act in their own interests. They act in the interest of the donor class or the Epstein class in the case of the Americas. And so even though it goes against their own national interests, their own economies, their own standard of living is going to be dropped because of this pointless fighting with Iran and Yemen, they’re going to do it anyway, because this is what Israel demands.
Ryan’s kind of laid out the line, and he’s hinted that actually the Saudis aren’t in control of their own policies. Do you think it’s the Americans and the Israelis who’ve triggered this? And what benefit is there? Certainly for America, I can’t see. I don’t see any benefit in any of the war at the moment, but trying to make some sense out of this for me, I can’t understand why the Saudis would want to be blockaded on both fronts. They knew perfectly, well, that’s going to happen, because the Yemenis had done it before. They had chipped shipping down in that region, and they actually scared away most of the U.S. Navy. Certainly the bigger warships had withdrawn, because the Yemenis were really serious. Why are they continuing with this kind of futile effort to repeat the same old tactics which have failed before?
Look, when you look at the monarchs in the Persian Gulf, in the Arab Zionist countries of the Persian Gulf, they’re not really educated people. And they have problem understanding raw politics. Someone like Mohammed bin Salma is… I mean, he has different issues, right? Aside from his snorting and everything, he has different issues. For example, he was talking about bringing the war to Iran, right? And when he says that it’s one thing to listen to him, to his transcript being translated to English, it’s another thing to listen to him in Arabic, right? As some kind of Because as you know, the Sassanid Empire was invaded by the Arabs, right? But there is this underlying feeling in people like Mohammed bin Salman that they have a duty in order to fight the Persians. They still see it as in that context. It’s a cultural thing, right? One thing that I know, and it’s very sad, I don’t know why Saudi Arabia Kuwait, all these countries do this to themselves. So UAE and Israel, they had a joint plan. As you know, UAE has this rivalry with Saudi Arabia, right? So they’re trying to eclipse them in order to put more pressure on them. UAE and Israel were working on plans in order to cut off the access of Saudis To Bob Al-Mandab and straight off almost. They were actually working on this, right? And seeing that now as a result of the attack that has happened on Iran and Yemen, the Saudis themselves have walked into that kind of program. It really makes you question as to what Mohammed bin Salman actually thinks. But again, the problem is that The prejudice, the hostility in that historic context clouds the judgment of people like Mohammed bin Salma. We had the Beijing Accord with Saudi Arabia in which Iran and Saudi Arabia, they sort of had a rapprochement. But they didn’t last because the Saudis are not serious. I think that they thought that they can get away with it, that if they get rid of Iran, they can become the hegemon in this region. I mean, the truth is that Israel is playing all of them against one another, the same UAE that has been given carte blanche in different parts of the world in order to carry out atrocities. It will only be used as long as it contains Saudi Arabia. Once Iran is gone and they inflict the kind of damage that they want to inflict on Saudi Arabia, the UAE itself will become more unstable. We’re talking about seven cities. The UAE, United Arab Emirates, it’s just seven cities. It’s very small. But they don’t understand that you don’t, and apologies for saying this, you don’t defecate where you eat. You don’t defecate where you sleep. You know, you look at the Europeans. The Europeans go to Africa and start wars there. But this is not the mentality in these Arab Zionist countries.
Ryan, lots of points there, but staying with the Saudi thing… And Assad’s made a strong case for the Saudis not really knowing what on earth they’re doing, to be fair, and probably goes for most of those Gulf Arab monarchies. And we could go into the reasons for that. Seems to be a lot of that going around. Hmm. I mean, they bombed Yemen to smithereens. They were bombing weddings and funerals. They were genociding the Yemenis before the Gaza genocide began for maybe about a dozen years or something like that. You know, I was watching Mount I was watching for many years and reporting on the Saudi’s Air Force hitting, as I said, you know, weddings and funerals, water installations, infrastructure, you know, war crimes. And they were doing it with, you know, American jets. They were doing it with probably the logistics being given to them by the Anglo-Zionist empire. And yet again, they’re here, of course, triggering that again. As someone says, it’s obviously, you know, a kind of a trap that they’re falling into. The mind boggles how Saudis could really score this kind of own goal. What’s your take on what’s going on in the background and why they’ve come through on this policy now?
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It’s hard to fathom why a lot of these factions are doing what they’re doing, including the United States. They’re fighting to open a strait that was already open before they started a war. They’re fighting about a mythical uranium program that they already had a handle on, Prior to bombing Iran, they’re just trying to get things back to pre-war status that they would have had automatically if they had just done nothing. Either they had Iran fragmented, and by killing the Ayatollah, now it’s more united than ever. And they’ve lost the strait. And they don’t have the means to open it. And they just keep, you had a chance at a memorandum of understanding, and you blew it. Because you couldn’t tell the Israelis to stop annexing territory in Lebanon and blowing up civilians. So, you know, they weren’t going to do that. So, okay, then you lose the straight. You cannot punch your way out of this. But we’re seeing that it’s predictable. They’re just going to do the same dumb moves over and over again. And I don’t see why Saudi Arabia is anything special or the UAE. I mean, they did this to themselves. You signed up with the wrong team. Maybe you can mess with Sudan and their civil war and steal gold and get away with that for a while, and you can pick on Yemen before, but they’ve bitten off more than they can chew. And I think if I was to try to explain why would all of these factions take a course that’s so stupid and so clearly not, you know, you can see the writing on the wall how this thing ends, it’s because at first they had a lot of success. Israel did get its war in Iraq and killed a million people on top of Saddam and threw that country into sectarianism, you know, fighting Shia, Sunni, Kurds.
They did win in Syria using the Gulf states to loan their money to pay mercenaries to overthrow Assad and throw that country into anarchy and disarray. And they did have sort of success in Lebanon with their pager attack and they blew up Gaza in front of the world without consequence, not a single sanction. Except I think from Bolivia and Venezuela that, you know, they got away with that. So they thought next is Iran. And maybe they assume we’ll kill the Ayatollah, it’ll fall apart. That’s the last block of resistance. And then we’ll have greater Israel. We’ll ethnically cleanse this whole area and take all the territory. But the opposite happened. They killed the Ayatollah, Iran, United, closed the strait, was able to consistently hit them with enough drones and ballistic missiles to overwhelm their interceptors. Now they’re low on standoff munitions as well. The Infrared Air Defense is able to shoot down helicopters and aircraft, even F-15 Eagles, which is the fanciest thing they have. So they just walked into it. They don’t know how to walk back out of it. So they’re doubling and tripling down. It’s kind of the definition of insanity. But we saw this, you know, why did you fight the Taliban for 20 years to replace them with the Taliban? And leave billions of dollars of weapons caches there. Why do they do a lot of the dumb things they do? Because people making decisions, you know, you’ve got these like alcoholic Christian dispensationalists like Pete Hegseth, Mike Huckabee, who’s like a biblical literalist. They’re not, we don’t have statesmen anymore. There’s no Henry Kissinger, you know, was an evil person, but you can’t call him stupid. Same thing, James Baker, Schwarzkopf, these people don’t exist anymore. You get Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the real estate mogul, you know, the guy that did go-between between Ertime Wertheimer and Bernard Carrick on September 11th. These kind of characters who don’t even know the names of Oblask in Ukraine and have no interest in real peace with Iran. And so when you allow a cabinet of fools, led by a fool, and the same thing, for instance, repeat in Saudi Arabia, where you have monarchs who only surround themselves with yes men and can’t handle bad news, then, yeah, you end up with a political policy that just continues to dive off a cliff. And expect good results. And you’re seeing it. They’re going to continue this course of playing this tit-for-tat clopen-ness of the Strait of Hormuz, and now Bab el Mandeb, where they’re losing billion dollars a day. They’re starting to lose soldiers. They’re losing infrastructure. Their bases have been decimated. Iran has played tag at any city in Saudi Arabia they can connect. Yeah, Israel’s losing on the ground. I guess you could say they’re winning in the air war, you know, blowing up residential houses, things that can be rebuilt as soon as the war ends. They’re losing soldiers, they’re losing tanks, they’re losing Israelis who are fleeing because half of them aren’t from there anyway. And it’s all culminating and they say, well, what’s going to give? Are you going to continue to dip into oil reserves? You can’t do that indefinitely. You will run out. It is a finite resource. You’re going to have to comply with Iran’s demands or you’re going to have to do something insane like use nuclear weapons. So, I mean, that’s the future. This war is already lost. They can drag it out and have more casualties and lose more things and waste more money. But eventually they’re going to have to conclude that In order to get the flow going again, you have to comply with the demands. The demands are very reasonable. Get your adjacent bases to our country far away. Stop killing civilians in Lebanon and Gaza. That’s like a normal humanitarian thing to do. And lift the sanctions and unfreeze our assets. Why not? But the Zionists don’t want this. They want to cripple Iran. They think it’s still possible. It isn’t.
Well, Yemen’s Ansarullah took 14, 15 years of pounding, and Iran dealt with the sacred defense. In both those conflicts, the parties who are being targeted again now have shown that their resilience and their commitment to fighting for their sovereignty, for their dignity, integrity, they’ve shown that there They’re willing to give numbers, give martyrs, if you like. And it only strengthens the resolve even more. So even from a military point of view, all the track record, all the history should tell the Americans that the Iranians and the Yemenis, when they had nothing, when they were militarily Relatively weak, still withstood all that they threw at them. And now Iran has ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, you know, drone power. It has sophisticated sort of, you know, defense mechanisms, some say from China, some say indigenous, humane, whatever the reality. They are capable of hurting the Americans. And they are. They have now got body bags of Americans admittedly by the administration And, of course, they’ve admitted to maybe about four or five deaths, maybe 40, 50 American troops dead altogether. But reality, we rather suspect, is worse. So, Ehsan, you know, they all are kind of—they do seem to be on a hiding to nothing. Let’s talk about Yemen’s Ansarullah and the internal scenario. You know, they—the Americans and the Israelis, as a combination, went and blew up, basically bombed the entire government of the Yemeni Ansarullah at one stage, right? I think even the prime minister, they wiped them out in one or two salvos. It didn’t stop the Yemenis continuing their resistance. They have apparently wiped out over 175 Iranians. Ryan’s point, though, is that he talks about One other option, you know, the nuclear option. And everybody thinks, oh, that can’t possibly happen because it would affect the whole region. I had one bizarre notion online. I don’t always share these, but this one really got to me. It said, oh, when they, if the Israelis decide to use the nuke, Actually, it’ll only affect the northern hemisphere because the Gulf Stream or the airwaves will take the radiation around the world on the north side. And that’s where 90% of the world’s population exists. What are your thoughts? How far can these psychopaths go, the Israeli ones and the American administration ones as well?
During the Biden administration, the nuclear posture of the United States actually went from having the secondary strike policy to now adopting a policy that actually allows a preemptive strike. So people like to talk about, oh, Trump is an idiot. You know, Hexeth is an idiot who quotes fake pop fiction Bible quotes. But the truth is that, you know, this was long time coming. Again, as I mentioned, Biden administration changed the nuclear posture of United States. And if you look at what they’re trying to do, that policy is only applicable to Iran, right? Former Undersecretary of the Department of Energy, Amos Haqstad, I don’t know, maybe I’m mispronouncing his name. I’m not really good at remembering people’s names. But he said that during the Biden administration, they were getting ready to carry out strikes against Iran, right? So this is the situation in the United States. There is no… Legal problem for the administration to actually carry out a nuclear strike against Iran. We saw what happened when, during the Operation Midnight Hammer, United States attacked the Iranian nuclear sites. I can tell you that, first of all, the kind of attack that they carried out on Fordo is not replicable. That’s the first thing. Because they actually carried out a very precise attack on Ford that they targeted the ventilation charts over Fordow because of the fact that they had the schematics, the blueprint of the structure that was handed to them by the IAEA basically, right? So that model is not replicable for the Pickaxe Mountain because Pickaxe Mountain Isn’t actually,
wasn’t declared to the IAEA. And the reason is that you only have to tell IAEA
about your facilities once you actually bring them to the operational level, right? But it was just being built. So, you know, they did that prematurely. They don’t know how the structure in Pickett’s Mountain works. It doesn’t have the floor that Fordow had. And even considering every problem that Fordow had and everything that I just laid before your audience, Fordow is relatively unaffected by Operation Midnight Hammer, right? So the question becomes, how would you deal with a Pickaxe Mountain facility that is buried deeper under the ground And it is covered by a very thick layer of granite that is acting basically as a natural armor of the facility. You have to use a tactical nuclear weapon, right? And this is why, I mean… Basically, they’re finding themselves, the Israelis and the Americans, they’re finding themselves more and more out of tangible military solutions. And this might result in acting in a very desperate way. When you read about the Cold War area military simulations and the ones that took place after that, did you know that the Americans actually thought that they can win a nuclear war But the problem would be that, I mean, the situation would be that they would have like 40,000 people left alive, a very small percentage of the population. And you’re left with the question, like, are you freaking insane? How and why? And how would you define that as a victory? Yes, you have reduced. Let’s go with the assumption that your simulation was 100% accurate. How is this a victory? Okay, you have destroyed your enemy, but your enemy has destroyed like 99.9% of your capabilities. How is that a victory? But they thought that they can win a nuclear war with Russia, right? So this is the fundamental problem, this arrogance that shows itself in the form of People like Pete Hexer, they are symptoms. They’re not the main cause of the problem. They’re the symptoms of this American exceptionalism, this American arrogance that has manifested themselves in figures like Pete Hexer and the individuals that Ryan mentioned. Back then, the politicians like Henry Kissinger, whose name was mentioned, they would actually say, You know, rather smart things, you know, in terms of the military tactics. But these people are fundamentally incapable of understanding the importance of geography, the importance of geopolitics, importance of having different allies. And they just think, this is my imitation of, you know, Pete Hexer. You know, like you have this big troll, like I don’t know if you have seen one of those fantasy movies, like this big troll with this huge club over his head. And he’s just saying nonsensical things, roaring and things like that. And he’s coming out of the cave, not really dressed properly with like that kind of shorts that he’s like torn apart. This is my This is what I think when I think of people like Donald Trump, literal children that have been given this power and control over the United States military. And this is not to mimic the democratic propaganda that, oh, the Democrats are the freaking adults in the room. No, I’m not trying to say that. I’m just merely trying to say that currently in terms of the people who are running the So, Ryan, I’m going to
stick with this nuclear issue because it gets brushed over. Iran could trigger the nuclear option, and maybe Ehsan will come in after you on this. There’s been a lot of propaganda being put out about, even now, about potential Divisions within the Iranian establishment. Sayyid Mujtab Khamenei, the new supreme leader, many, they’re still pushing that notion that he doesn’t even exist, he’s dead. Some are still pushing these narratives about divisions between the supreme leader and Mr. Khalil. So that’s another act of desperation, one being this nuclear option, given that Iran One could actually, under the new leadership, say, look, well, the old fatwa is no longer absolutely relevant and we’re going to make the bomb, we’re going to explode. It doesn’t mean we’re going to use it. You can still say we’re against it as a moral, ethical usage. But it’s there and it’s a deterrent and it gives their enemies real food for thought. Do you think that’s the line that Iran should go down, given that they’re just—the Israelis and Americans are like a dog with a bone and seem to think that they can do to Iran what they did to Syria, i.e. spent 15 years, 10, 15 years, trying to basically throttle it to death? It hasn’t worked for 40 years. I don’t know why they still think that this is a doable program, but they seem to think so. And they are almost pushing Iran to go nuclear, potentially.
Well, in Syria, they had ground forces via ISIS. So you had al-Nasrash frana, Raul al-Sham, or al-Nasrash HTS, whatever. And in Iran, this is different. This is a country the size of Alaska, which is the size of all of Western Europe, 92 million people. You cannot win that with an air war. They don’t have a ground force. Go ahead, send in the Kurds. Send tonight. It’s not happening. But I do not think that this is a road A ranch go down because as things are now, they’ve already won. Like through the way it is now with a conventional war with their control over the strait, they win. If you start flirting with the nuclear war, they will lose. Oh, you could build a bomb. Maybe you could build 10. Well, America has thousands. They want you to go on that road because that’s a road they can win. It would not serve as a deterrent. They would be able to say, oh my god, Iran has a nuclear bomb. We had to nuke them first before they used it and it would justify a nuclear holocaust. So don’t. Don’t roll the dice. You have an automatic W right now. They cannot beat you by conventional means. So stick with that.
Okay. Same question to you about the internal, this propaganda about divisions within Iran. That never goes. But all I’m seeing from the footage is that the people are demanding revenge. The people are telling the administration, They don’t like the idea of an MOU or an agreement with the Americans, and that they are quite happy to sacrifice themselves. Given that kind of sea of support at the ground level, you know, 30 million have signed up for the Iranian military to join it. There’s a million-strong standing army which is ready to do the same thing they did in the great sacred defense war against Saddam. Do you think that Iran is capable of sustaining this for the next decade, if necessary? I mean, I’m not saying that it’s going to last that long, but do you think this attritional situation, tit for tat, can go on for a very long time, or do you see it concluding sooner?
When you talk about, like, a 10-year war with the United States, I mean, sure, Taliban fought the United States for 20 years, right? But the first and foremost priority of Iran to manage the escalation, and you can see with the way that Iran has tried to sort of make United States President Ronald McDonald, that clown, to rethink twice when he threatens Iran with destroying its infrastructure, right? So yes, Iran can fight that kind of war, but there is no real reason for Iran to actually do so. And Iran has been very successful in managing the escalation ladder. There are different decisions that are taken by the Iranian government, the Iranian armed forces, in order to make things very clear to United States that this is the wrong trajectory that they’re going down on. For example, very recently, On the Iranian national TV, it was declared that the Arab Zionist countries in the Persian Gulf should really thread carefully because one day they might wake up to the Iranian ground invasion, right? And this is something that is now on the table. Iran might… Sorry?
Wow, I said that’s a big development.
Yeah, now preemptive ground incursion into these countries is a possibility, right? We have made a lot of efforts in order to build this country and its infrastructures in the past 47 years. And we’re not going to make it easy for United States or Israel or these Arab Zionist lapdogs of the empire to destroy the infrastructure inside Iraq. One thing that I’d like to address is that I’m very happy to hear Ryan talk about the complexities of developing nuclear weapon. Because actually not that many people understand how complex it is, how there are multiple facets and multiple aspects to this thing. They just think about developing the nuclear weapon on its own. But I do have to disagree with one thing. The same way that United States has provided other countries with nuclear umbrella, it goes the other way around. You don’t need to threaten United States. You don’t need to go to a nuclear war with United States. You only need to be able to respond to Israel. I hate to use this rhetoric, but… If you take Israel as hostage, that would actually deter United States’ nuclear attack on Iran. But the reason that I mention it, at the same time as validating the opinion that Ryan had, is to say that Iran is not really interested in that kind of escalation or testing those things. But it’s very important to understand that much like the ground incursion that is now on the table, it’s something that is on the table. And again, if people doubt my claims, they need to understand that Iran carried out the Iranian special forces of 65th Airborne Brigade. They carried out 11 operations in Iraq, killed eight Kurdish terrorists, Commanders destroyed three outposts and they came back to Iran, right? So one day, one of these monarchs might wake up in their palace thinking that, oh, everything is okay. And, you know, the consequence of their adventurism in allowing the United States to target the Iranian infrastructure is that, okay, the Kuwaiti power plant is going to get hit, right? But they’re on wafer-thin ice with the Iranian patients. And one day, 65th Airborne Brigade, known as the NOHAD, which interestingly enough was established by, you know, Britain, right? They’re very, very good at their job. One day they might wake up to, I don’t know, Mighty Phantoms, the Ghost of Shadows, Different special forces that Iran have, and they might find themselves on their way back to Iran, right? So we have different ways in order to escalate. I think that one thing that, and I’m sorry, I’m taking too long of your time. I’m very interested to hear your other guests’ opinion on these things. But one thing that happened was that I think that United States, Israel, they sort of brush off Iranian claims that they might close down Bab al-Manda. We have many more cards. It’s very different. United States can always use the same card, but in different ways. Drop bigger bombs on Iran, right? But the thing with Iran is that we have different cards, different cards that are… Affecting the geopolitics. Bab al-Mandaab is now used. The war can actually Metastasize and go into eastern parts of Africa. This is something that Iran can do. Iran can target Cyprus, Diego Garcia. I don’t know why UK, the country that you’re living in, decided to basically escalate. Iran has the option of ground incursion into these countries. You’re talking about a country that has a full set of cards. And one thing that happens is that the arrogance of individuals like Pete Hexer, who thinks that it’s a good idea to go and work out with the service members of the United States military and then run out of, you know, basically breath in doing so and humiliating himself. This arrogant guy, who’s a man-child, he thinks that, oh, we have a bigger red button that we can push on Iran. No, that’s not how things work. We have been preparing for this war for the last 30 years. And I can tell you that there are a lot that Iran can do.
Well, lots of prophetic analysis there. I mean, I could add that cables under Hormuz, the internet cables have been mooted as another possibility. And of course, that goes for perhaps the Bab al-Mandib as well. Of course, there are other options in terms of destroying pipelines, the land pipelines, presumably, that run between the Gulf Arab states and the rest of the world. And, of course, there’s still the direct hits on Israel because Iran hasn’t really used We’ve used that card for a while, and many people are asking why they’re not doing it. The argument, of course, is that they’re knocking out the forward defense line and the forward attack line of the Anglo-Zionist empire using the Arab nation. So, many, many more cards. And we haven’t mentioned China and Russia in terms of them perhaps upping the ante in terms of supporting Iran perhaps in a bigger way or in a way which is more transparent. All these things are potentially there, I guess. Ryan, I’m going to let you sort of come back on- Yeah, I can add to that.
And use that as a conclusion. Yeah, you’ve got data centers as well, desalination plans. There’s a lot of things that could be added to target packages, and there really is no Defense envelope. What they’ve been doing is they’ve been wiping out a radar and satellite communications hub to blind the enemy, which then allows you to hit everything you want once you can do that because you’re mitigating their ability to commit offense on you. And so if America blows up a bridge, a tunnel, okay, these things can just be rebuilt. They’re concrete and steel. They’re not talking about rare earth metals and complex semiconductors and things that have two-year supply lines like you have when you lose a communication hub or interceptors. These are a far greater loss than what they’re delivering on a ramp. What’s odd is they had red hat game. They had, I mean, it’s too technical. They had war games where you, you do a mock invasion and see you play both sides. And so, and they would red hat it is where, so someone’s, you know, pretends to be the black cat, like, well, if I was Iran, I could do this and this and this. And in these scenarios, Iran would win like, well, and they would say, no, you can’t do that. Like, yes, we can. You can’t put limits. You can’t. Change the parameters. It’s a war. Yes, we can hit your cables. Yes, we can do this. And they said, no, no, because they wanted them to fight like a 1991-style war or whatever. But that’s not, we’re in the era of drones, you know, and you should have, everyone should have seen this with the war in the north, the importance of drones with Ukraine and Russia. Hezbollah has shown how valuable they are. You know, for very low cost, cheap impact, you can do a lot of damage. The more modern a society is, the more fragile it is, the more it relies on larger and larger systems, and those systems rely on other systems. So you get a cascading effect if you strip out oil or you strip out rare earth metals and things. It’s, you know, it’ll come down. Yemen, they can deal with austerity. They’ve been dealing with cyclical wars most of their lives. So can Palestine. Lebanon went through a brutal civil war. Syria, it’s so disgusting to even mention. They can handle it. But these perfume princesses in the Gulf states, you know, in 100 plus degrees Fahrenheit, if you take out electricity, they don’t have air conditioning. I mean, look, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have emptied. Tourism’s like almost zero. They’re losing this war through conventional means. So I think in controlling the escalation ladder, there isn’t a need to roll the dice on nuclear weapons. I think they need to maintain the, we could be a breakout state, that kind of question mark is the sweet spot is where they need to stay and win this through conventional means because the U.S. has got its midterm elections. Netanyahu is under corruption charges. The irony is it’s not for murdering all the kids and raping prisoners. It’s for stealing money, which is the greatest crime in Israel. So they’ve got to kind of let Israel hit first so that they don’t create the rally around the flag effect in reverse by attacking them first. That’s what I think they think. I’m of the… They’re going to blame you anyway, so go ahead and preempt them. But… This seems to be the plan. And every day that goes by when you’re in a war of attrition and the other side is losing billions of dollars every day, and you’re in like the porcupine position, like if they attack you, they have to eat it. They can outpace them. They can build ballistic missiles faster than you can build interceptors. And they definitely can build drones faster than you can build satellites and Railguns and so on. So they see that they’re ready to go all year. America maxed out, has about six months left of, I mean, they’d have to go to dumb bombs and so on. The political will isn’t there. He’s going to get creamed in the midterms. The American public doesn’t want it. People don’t like their gas and grocery bills going up for war. They don’t understand what the point is. They keep switching rationales. Oh, we’re going after the nuclear program that I also obliterated. Like it doesn’t make any sense. Oh, they don’t have a Navy or communications or an Air Force. Then what’s shooting at you in the Strait of Hormuz? They do have a Navy. They have many subs. They have ships. Even if you did wipe out the Navy, the land batteries would still hold that straight close. And what I don’t understand is we know that they knew this because they war-gamed this out. And it’s like they just didn’t like the results. And Trump’s getting advice like, why don’t you blockade the blockade? He got that from Alan Dershowitz, Jeffrey Epstein’s lawyer. He didn’t know anything about the military. And this is the problem. You’ve got the strongest military in the world is being run by the Three Stooges. And so, you know, you can squander it. You know, bad leadership doesn’t matter what you have. They didn’t understand geography at all. Like Iran’s biggest air defense is the mountains. It’s natural. It’s there. It’s granite, too. You can’t get through. And on top of that, they have You know, the kind they built, but they don’t need to rely on Russia and China. They can make everything locally, except for the eye in the sky. That intelligence from China has proven very valuable. But other than that, that’s all that Russia and China need to do. Stay out of it.
Thank you very much, Ryan. And Ehsan, a really forensic analysis. I let it run because you were both coming up with so many fantastic nuggets that people really need to pay attention to in terms of the ground realities of this war and the consequences. And I think that it’s clear that Trump is committing political suicide the way he’s going. And who’s pushing him into that? One doesn’t know who the Epstein class really are that have forced this war Who are the people who want depopulation agendas? Who are the people who want this kind of transhumanist dystopian future? Who wants the destruction of America? Because this is what I think we’re seeing in real time. We’re seeing the U.S. being undermined. As people lose confidence in the US and its economic and other actions, diplomatic and otherwise, it’s just going to mean a faster demise for the USA. There’s former status of being the unassailable superpower and number one economy in the world. I just can’t see that continuing if they go down this line. And the Chinese, without even firing a shot, are essentially going to clean up, by the looks of things, if this war and the war on Russia continues, and if now it spreads to the bubble Yemen. All for what? For MIGA. Make Israel great again, or for the Epstein class, or for the restructuring of the world’s economy, because global capitalism had failed in all its dream weaving. And now what you’re going to get is There’s a West in decline, a West which is going to start becoming the poor man of the world potentially, especially Europe and the Americans not far behind because those oil reserves are depleting and that dollar is going to lose value. And of course, people will vote with their feet in terms of whether they really believe in this dollar and whether they should switch to something more solid. All these things are going to affect us and we know that people like Ryan Dawson and Ehsan Sefer-Najal are not appreciated on mainstream media because they won’t tell you any of this. They won’t allow you into false sense of security as if the West can win a war against Russia in Ukraine, as if America can win a war against Russia. That’s the lie that’s going around with the likes of Piers Morgan and all the others. They’re trying to maintain the nonsense. And, actually, it’s all at your expense, especially those in the global north now, I would say. The global south has had it bad for a long time. And they don’t—they kind of can cope with this kind of adversity. Will the Global North cope with the kind of adversity that is now coming and Trump and co are enforcing? I don’t know. Let’s wait and see. Thank you to my guests. Do, again, like, share, subscribe to Deep Guy Perspective. Go to the Substack for Ryan Dawson for even more detailed analysis. And go to, it’s, I’m going to forget the name of your podcast all of a sudden. It’s, Ehsan, help me. That’s it. At the end of a session, my brain is gargled as well. Thank you both gentlemen for giving us that analysis. Until the next deep dive perspective, goodbye. Yeah, I knew that. Thank you, Ehsan. I’ll redo that end. Don’t worry. And Lindsey Graham’s dead.
Hooray.
